Friday, January 30, 2009

Australian Open, Tennis at its best so far

I have just finished watching the longest match in Australian Open History, between Rafael Nadal and Fernando Verdasco, both of Spain. This match was a back and forth affair, with Nadal outlasting Verdasco in the fifth and final set to take the match 6-7 (4), 6-4, 7-6 (2), 6-7 (1), 6-4. The question now becomes how fast can Nadal recover before he has to face his nemesis Roger Federer in the finals in under 44 hours. If anyone can do it Nadal can, but the odds are favoring Federer because of the surface and because Nadal had such a tough contest with not much time to recover. Verdasco played an amazing match, fighting off break points in the final set, but could not seem to outlast Nadal, who's iron will again won him a grueling five setter that lasted five hours and 14 minutes to become the longest match in Australian Open history. Both players are left handed and Verdasco had over 90 winners in the match but it wasn't enough to outlast the sports number one seed and one of its toughest players. Verdasco went down Love 40 serving at 4-5 in the fifth set and handily won the next two points, on the third match point however, he double faulted and both players went to the ground in exhaustion. I can tell you as a tennis player myself, the worst feeling when you lose a match is to double fault on match point. One can almost stomach losing if you go out fighting but to give the match away that way is doubly painful. Nadal seemed spent after the match and tried to be cautiously optimistic about the final. But lets be serious here, this is the best rivalry in sports right now, be it individual or team related. Nadal is in his first hard court final of his career and while he holds the head to head record over Federer, he has never beaten him in a hard court final. This is the last surface that both players have not played on and the world awaits the decision. Federer easily cruised through American Andy Roddick in the semi finals in straight sets, to reach the final and sits on the precipice of tying Pete Sampras' record of 14 grand slam titles with a win Sunday. He has history on his racquet and it is only fitting that the opponent that stands in his way is his nemesis and toughest one at that Rafael Nadal. Federer must still be smarting from his Wimbledon five set loss to Rafa last year and is looking for payback. What a great way to finally get it, not only with a win that beats Rafa, but also ties him with the greatest player of his generation and possibly all time, Pete Sampras. Things look to be swaying towards Federer, he has had two days of rest and time to prepare, while Rafa just played one of the most grueling five setters of his life and has little time to recover. Rafa has age on his side, being only 22, can he pull off yet another miraculous win? We shall see Sunday.
Federer will have a slightly easier time with Rafa's game on the hard courts where he can look to exploit Rafa's second serve a bit more and try to bring him into net with his short slice backhands. A truer bounce and better footing can only help Roger as he tries to figure out how best to exploit a player with few weaknesses. My opinion on this is that Roger will win this match, he has two things in his favor here, one, the surface, Roger enjoys pace and the surface gives him a truer bounce. While this can hurt him especially dealing with Rafa's forehand and all the spin it creates, he can also look to exploit Rafa's second serve which is one of the few chinks in his armor. Roger has all the shots, he can flatten out his forehand and punish Rafa and run him around, he can slice his backhand or hit it with spin and while both are amazingly fit, the match with Verdasco had to have taken something out of Rafa's tank. Roger is fresh and should not have a problem with going five if need be. Rafa never quits however in any match, not since Borg or Connors have I seen a player with such resolve, no matter the score or weather, Nadal has a will of iron and will play to the end of the match regardless of score or opponent. This match will come down to who can take control of the points early and dictate play. If Federer can keep the ball away from Rafa's forehand and move him from side to side, draw him to the net when it suits him and is hitting the ball cleanly I think Federer will win, however, if it becomes a dogfight which it most likely will, Rafa has a chance to hurt Federer if he can run around some backhands, and use his deadly forehand to create angles and wear Roger down. Serve will be important, Federer has been serving impeccably well in his last few matches, Roddick was never in the match with him and he hit many aces using placement instead of brute force. Federer, like Sampras has a perfect ball toss, it never varies and you cannot read where he is going with it. He uses placement and varied pace to confuse opponents. While Sampras just tried to blow you off the court, Federer has all the shots and uses varied pace along with angles to throw you off your game. He has one of the best returns in the business, preferring mostly to block back his backhand to get him into the points. This strategy has given him a 7-0 record against Roddick in grand slams, one of the biggest servers in the game. Roddick never had the answers for Federer. If he cannot improve his backhand and flatten it out to hurt opponents, I fear he will never be able to ascend to the heights and promise of his earlier career. The serve can only get you so far and if the opponent can get it back it nullifies this weapon.
It is going to be a final for the ages as two of the sports greats go at each other in the years first grand slam. This open has been hot with temperatures of over 140 degrees being recorded. Serena Williams' match ended controversially when in the middle of the match when she was in trouble, the roof was closed when it looked like she might dwindle in the scorching heat. This cooling down of the temperature from well over 100 to the eighties might have saved Serena from going down in the match.
Keys to the final, for Nadal we will have to see how he recovers in the short time he has, the odds are that the roof will be open for the final, the heat will only hurt Nadal as the match progresses. While he is known for his legendary fitness the semi-final match had to have taken a lot out of him, he will have to try to end some points early and maybe even try to come to net on some good approaches to try and get some cheap points. He doesn't want long baseline rallies with Roger. He will have to serve amazingly well and hold serve consistently. Roger gives you few chances to break him and he will have to take advantage of every break chance to have a chance to win. Many of their previous matches have gone to tiebreakers. Rafa will have to look for his chances to break and seize on every one if he has a chance to win. Roger only needs one break a set to have a good shot at winning that set. He is very difficult to break and can ace opponents at will. Rafa will have to try to run around some backhands and go for broke on his forehand at times. Rafa likes to play far behind the baseline, the problem is, this is hard court not clay, by playing so far back and not taking the ball earlier, he gives Federer, one of the best movers in the game time to recover and get back into the court, this hurts him. Roger plays closer to the baseline, giving his opponent less time to recover which hurts Nadal. Look for Roger to try to hit the short slice backhand to Rafa's backhand side to draw him into net where Rafa is less comfortable and then lob or pass him. While Rafa can create amazing angles off the forehand his backhand is less of a weapon, look for Roger to try to exploit this weakness by slicing a lot of backhands to Rafa's backhand side, then look to hurt him with a penetrating approach shot. The keys for Federer will be serve, he has to hold and look for his chances on Rafa's serve which will come. Instead of simply blocking back his backhand return he should look to flatten out his backhand and try to hurt Rafa from the outset. He might try to run around some backhands too which his speed enables him to do and really put Rafa on the defensive in points. Look for Roger to try to hit some drop shots also. Rafa plays far back behind the baseline and Federer has one of the best drop shots in the game he disguises it amazingly well and since he slices a lot it is a great disguise for the shot, look for him to wear Rafa down early and keep him off balance with this shot. Roger has to serve steadily and big, creating angles with his serve and he needs a high first service percentage throughout. Many of these players matches have been decided by a key break in each set. Rafa cannot afford to lose the first set. If he can win it and put pressure on Roger early it will help him psychologically. If Roger wins the first set it will be a long day for Rafa, knowing he will have to go four or maybe five sets with Roger in the heat will be a big weight on his shoulders. If anyone can hold that weight however, it's Rafa who never gives up no matter the score. The key will be, can Rafa recover in such a short time frame. Brad Gilbert after interviewing him said he seemed slumped over and exhausted, who wouldn't be after an epic battle such as that? He might have some blisters on his hands which will not heal up in time for the final, this will also be a factor, the pain and discomfort they bring will only hamper Nadal in this match. His game in general is hard on the body, only 22, he already has suffered from knee problems and the extreme torque of his forehand grip puts extreme pressure on the elbow and shoulder. How long can Rafa go on and will he have enough left in the tank to defeat his nemesis and one of the greatest to ever play the game? Time will tell. It's going down Sunday night and we shall see.

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